The Latest Census Bureau Report Sparks Controversy with Claims of Noncitizen Voting
A new report released by the Census Bureau has rekindled debates over voter fraud, presenting contentious claims about noncitizen voting during the 2020 presidential election. The report, which has connections to a Trump-aligned think tank, has been met with skepticism from data and election experts.
Former President Trump has taken to social media to announce that the report’s preliminary analysis of over 128 million voter records indicates that more than 24,000 noncitizens voted illegally in the 2020 election. He suggested that this figure could rise significantly as the Census Bureau completes its examination of an additional 32 million voter records.
The seven-page, unauthored document reportedly utilizes a 2020 commercial voter file and various federal administrative records. However, the methodology and conclusions have been challenged by experts.
Notably, the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau. Instead, the team included members from the America First Policy Institute, a think tank established by officials from Trump’s first administration, according to an undisclosed Census Bureau employee.
While the Census Bureau, the America First Policy Institute, and the White House have not commented on the matter, the think tank defended the report in a social media post, underscoring the importance of transparency in restoring election confidence.
Trump’s Ongoing Claims of Voter Fraud
Despite maintaining that the 2020 election was fraudulent, Trump continues to push for stringent voting restrictions ahead of upcoming midterm elections. The recent figures from the Census Bureau report join other disputed data released by the Trump administration in efforts to quantify noncitizen voting—a phenomenon that numerous studies have found to be rare.
Previously, the Department of Homeland Security disclosed finding 250,000 noncitizens on public voter rolls in several states, though details on their findings remain undisclosed, prompting skepticism from state election officials.
Prominent election experts have criticized the Census Bureau report. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, remarked, “This analysis is laughable. Census data cannot reliably be matched to voter data.” He also noted that the figures were too minor to have influenced the 2020 election outcome.
Similarly, Michael Morse from the University of Pennsylvania flagged potential data mismatches and incomplete records, stressing the report’s lack of transparency.
Concerns Over the Census Bureau’s Nonpartisan Reputation
Former Census Bureau employees have voiced concerns about the report’s impact on the agency’s credibility. Misty Heggeness, a former economist at the bureau, noted the absence of an author as unusual and indicative of potential issues with the report’s rigor.
Amy O’Hara, a former bureau official, highlighted the risks of inflated noncitizen voter numbers due to mismatches between voter files and citizenship records. She criticized the report’s claim of the bureau’s unique capability in identifying election fraud.
The timing of the report’s release coincides with significant changes at the bureau following workforce reductions and signals of impending alterations to the 2030 census, further raising concerns about the bureau’s future role in political and legal arenas.
As the nation prepares for the 2030 census, experts emphasize the importance of trust in the Census Bureau’s operations and transparency. The report’s implications are particularly poignant, given that public participation is crucial for the census’s success.
The report’s title, “Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis,” suggests that further analyses may be forthcoming. Heggeness advised public vigilance regarding the report’s claims and methodology, emphasizing the need for clarity and reliability in official statistics.
