As the UK government contemplates extending financial and property rights to unmarried couples, a new report suggests potential consequences for marriage and fertility rates. Drawing lessons from Finland, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) warns that these changes could alter family dynamics in England and Wales.
Implications of Cohabitation Reforms
The proposed reforms would grant cohabiting couples new legal entitlements after living together for three years or having a child. While officials believe these changes will not significantly affect marriage or family decisions, the CSJ report questions this assumption by examining Finland’s experience.
Finland’s 2011 reforms offered legal protections to cohabiting couples, although these were less extensive than what is proposed in the UK. Despite limited scope, Finland saw a notable decline in marriage rates and fertility following these changes.
Decline in Marriage and Fertility
The CSJ found that Finland’s first-marriage rate for women dropped by 23% over seven years post-reform. Furthermore, the fertility rate fell significantly, with the total fertility rate declining from 1.86 in 2010 to 1.37 in 2020. The report attributes 42% of the decline in first births to cohabiting couples having fewer children.
Extrapolating these effects to England and Wales, the CSJ estimates that similar reforms could have resulted in 111,000 fewer marriages from 2012 to 2023, including a shortfall of nearly 25,000 marriages in 2023 alone. Moreover, the fertility rate would have decreased to 1.25 by 2024, compared to the actual rate of 1.41.
Public Opinion and Criticism
The CSJ report raises concerns about the public’s support for these changes. A JL Partners poll of 1,515 UK adults found that 59.3% prefer marriage to remain a choice rather than gaining rights through cohabitation. Additionally, only 24.3% see changing cohabitation laws as a government priority.
Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy MP cautions that the reforms could blur the line between marriage and cohabitation. He argues for respecting the choices people make regarding their relationships. Sophia Worringer, CSJ’s Deputy Research Director, highlights Finland as a cautionary example, stating that “marriage fell, cohabitation declined, and fertility dropped.”
Dr. Tony Rucinski from the Coalition for Marriage (C4M) echoes these concerns, emphasizing the clear legal distinctions marriage provides. He argues that the proposed scheme introduces uncertainty and undermines the established legal framework surrounding marriage.
The CSJ report suggests that the government reconsider the impact of these reforms, urging ministers to evaluate potential behavioral changes before proceeding. This debate unfolds amid broader concerns about declining birth rates and an aging population in the UK.
This article was originally written by www.christiantoday.com
